BE Group will deliver a presentation at the meeting.
Minutes:
Chris Wilson attended from the BE Group to present the Central Lancashire Employment Study.
The work completed was a partial update to the comprehensive study completed five years ago, accounting for new government guidance, the Functional Economic Market Area, the change in the economy and the property market in Central Lancashire.
In reference to the economy of Central Lancashire, at the end of 2019, over 14,000 were employed in the manufacturing sector over the three authorities. Despite forecasted predictions of a decline, the sector had grown 19% since 2015 with an additional 2500 jobs.
It was clarified that the recent situation in Ukraine was too recent to use in the study of manufacturing. It was however stated that component and advanced manufacturing for automotive and aircraft industry was strong in the region.
Since 2015, growth in the construction sector lead to 335 new companies formed or expanded into the three authorities since 2015, creating an additional 2000-2500 jobs. South Ribble was historically the centre for larger construction enterprises, but recent trends observed smaller businesses with fewer than 10 employers grow in Chorley and South Ribble.
The office sector was substantial with 40,000 employed in the three authorities, with half in Preston. Available data ended in 2020, with Covid-19 not factored into the results.
Transportation was a growing sector nationally, with an increase of a third in logistic and warehousing, with an additional 2500 jobs.
The impact of Covid-19 in Lancashire was deemed to be at the national standard, it was not the most affected, but did not escape impact.
There was demand for commercial property up to 5000 square meters/50,000 square feet. The strongest demand was for smaller premises up to 500 square feet, with the average rent at £6-£9 per square foot.
Members raised that the commercial sector was struggling and asked if the methodology was confident/sound. It was confirmed that the consultation explored demand and growth of the sector, there was no evidence that the sector was slowing down. There was healthy demand for sites, ranging from high tech industry to small companies.
Current supply across Central Lancashire was 191 hectares. With 56.28 hectares in Chorley, 82.52 hectares in Preston and 51.98 hectares in South Ribble.
There were two strategic sites in Cuerdon, which at the time was confidential and part of the County’s masterplan and Samlesbury had the national Cyber Force Initiative.
Two methodologies were used to forecast the need of land. The first was to take the historic trend, take up rate and projections since 1991. The second used labour demand to project job growth and convert it to floor space and land need.
The forecast period was 17 years, 2021 – 2038. The historic trend supply estimate states that
· Chorley required another 20 hectares of land,
· South Ribble required another 26 hectares of land,
· Preston had enough to meet need, with a surplus of 11.46 hectares if including small ELR sites.
The labour demand output forecast predicted an additional 1200 jobs per sector across Central Lancashire to 2038, which was offset by the forecast in the decrease of 1200 jobs in manufacturing. Due to the space required for manufacturing compared to office, the land need was negative and resulted in strange surplus.
· Chorley was forecast to have a surplus of 48 to 54 hectares
· South Ribble was forecast to have a surplus of 42 to 47 hectares
· Preston was forecast to have a surplus of 72 to 78 hectares
The favoured methodology was historic trend. Due to Covid-19, there was expected to be further changes to job densities with an increase in working from home, hybrid and flexible working, which would enable more jobs in an office environment without any impact on floor space.
It was noted that the forecast did not necessarily reflect manufacturing growth, and businesses grew for reasons other than the number of people employed.
The total need for Central Lancashire was 225 hectares, without existing supply, that was 46 hectares mainly in Chorley and South Ribble.
Potential sites outlined were
· The M61 corridor for logistics and manufacturing,
· Buckshaw village for smaller industrial and warehousing.
· Fulwood barracks contains 9 hectares
It was highlighted that the impact of Covid had the potential to drastically change the need and identified land for employment. Additional work was needed to ensure that the wrong land was not identified or too much land was. More details to be provided by the end of the year.
Resolved: The report was noted